The Mould Loft

Instrument 10 · runs in your browser

The household chain

Today’s release is the reason this module has to be built carefully. The intuitive story is the wrong one this month.

The lag rule is not a setting. The month oil rises is not the month groceries rise. A model that shows instant pass-through is teaching something false. There is no control on this page that produces instant pass-through — asking for one returns the reason, not the number.
Which window?
Move crude
The transmission chain

    Ages 8–11

    Prices for different things move in different directions in the same month.

    Ages 12–14

    One month versus one year: same index, two different stories. Which one matches your family’s experience?

    Ages 15–18

    Build the transmission chain, then mark each link with a lag estimate. Defend the estimates.

    Ages Adults

    The month oil rises is not the month groceries rise. A model that shows instant pass-through is teaching something false.

    BLS Consumer Price Index, July 2026, USDL-26-1378, released 12 Aug 2026 — via Case Engine Module 07. Next release: 11 September 2026.